UVA Biocomplexity Institute gives updates on current COVID-19 models

CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WVIR) - With new COVID-19 case records in Virginia climbing every day, The University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute says there’s still a long way to go.

Models created by the Biocomplexity Institute in November forecasted 25,000 cases a week across the Commonwealth following the holiday season. So far, cases are meeting or exceeding those projections.

“We are seeing somewhere between the trend we predicted at that time and something worse,” University of Virgnia Biocomplexity Institute’s Srini Venkatramanan said. “We are starting to see this continued growth, and it is tough to disentangle, but I think now we are getting a clearer picture of what is catch up reporting, and what is increased growth and it is trending in a direction that we don’t want.”

The Institute says the vaccine won’t have a big impact on its models for a few more months, until more people receive their dose.

“For it to actually have an impact on bending the case growth it would require a general population rollout,” he said.

“2 percent or less than that done in the state so [we are] significantly away from starting to see the real impact of the vaccine” UVA Biocomplexity Institute’s Madhav Marahte added.

He says he still has hope, that the amount of cases can be driven in the right direction.

“The collective partnership between the folks, the local officials and the state, I think, has a real potential of still flattening,” he said. “I mean I would not give up hope, I think it’s just a question of convincing the masses and I think our state has done relatively well in the last so many months in convincing the folks, so I hope that that trend continues.”

Click here for the latest model.

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