Poll Shows President Obama Leads Romney

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If the presidential election was held Monday, President Barack Obama would walk away a winner in Virginia.  Public Policy Polling says the commander-in-chief continues to stay ahead of Mitt Romney.

And it's not the only poll saying that.  Another poll, Rasmussen Reports, which leans to the right, also has the president ahead in Virginia.

Both polls have President Obama with a slight lead in Virginia.  Public Policy Polling has Obama leading by five pointsRasmussen Reports has Obama with a one-point lead.   

"I always average the two for a rough indicator, and that means Obama's up perhaps three in Virginia," said University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato. 

Sabato says both campaigns have their own polls as well, and both camps are seeing similar results.  "If Obama wins, it will be with a smaller percentage than he did in 2008," he said.

Looking deeper into the Public Policy Polling's questions, Obama has a favorable job performance, and the people they polled have an unfavorable opinion of Romney.

The people surveyed said they were also very excited about the upcoming election. Public Policy Polling surveyed about 1,000 people. The group was predominately white, middle-aged with an even split between the parties.

Sabato said, "We're guessing about the composition of the electorate."

That's why Sabato says you can't put too much stock in the polls that continue to come out daily.  The results on November 6 will be the final say in the matter, and that final decision depends on who turns out at the polls.

Public Policy's poll also takes a look at third party candidates including former Congressman Virgil Goode.  He will be on the ballot along with two others.  Sabato says the trio probably won't determine if the state goes blue or red.

"You add that together and what do you get?  Not much impact because the probability is none of them will exceed 1 percent of the vote," he said.

Sabato says the people who typically vote third party, wouldn't vote for Obama or Romney anyway.  Those candidates only matter if the race in Virginia comes down to a few thousand votes.